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| Bryce Harper - Washington Nationals |
Within the context of a Dynasty League, drafting prospects can be one of the most exciting and important set of decisions a dynasty team manager can make. There are always off-season arguments within the blogosphere about which prospect has a higher ceiling, higher floor, and more tools. I argue that age and timetable are equally important to a managers draft selections which I have yet to see covered in other blogs.
In most dynasty formats managers have a minor league limit on the number of players allowed on a minor league roster. Lets say the average limit is ten minor league players. Managers are allowed to keep a player on their minor league roster as long as the player does not exceed rookie eligibility requirements (130 ABs / 50 IP). While managers do want the best overall talent on their minor league roster, I argue that prospect turnover is equally important. The prospect talent pool is a dynamic system that is reshuffled with each new draft class. If a manager has 8 of 10 prospects tied up as long term high upside options, that manager is potentially letting new draft talent slip to the rest of the league.
The best case scenario for any dynasty manager is successful graduation of prospects, which opens up spots for new draftees in the upcoming draft. Most managers are searching for that superstar in the minors that they can retain on contract for many years, which perpetrates a system based on youth and upside. This prolongs prospect graduation dates and prevents another prospect from being drafted. This strategy is additional stressful on leagues where prospects have a physical contract. The concept that a prospects contract comes due his rookie season or even the year before his rookie season is not an ideal situation.
I believe that the pursuit of the next uber-prospect can hurt a team more than help it. Consider a situation where a team in my league drafted Bryce Harper in 2009. Another team drafted Dan Hudson in the same year. Dan Hudson graduated from the minor leagues in 2010, which allowed another draft pick in his spot. That team could draft a prospect like Dee Gordon or Jose Altuve in 2011 and proceed to graduate that prospect in the 2012 season. I am not saying that any of these prospects are comparable to Harper in value or upside, I am trying to represent the time-value of drafting prospects. In leagues with a contract based system for prospects this becomes even more important.
I stipulate that a minor league system in dynasty baseball leagues should try an provide cheap internal options for the various team positions. Dee Gordon or Jose Altuve may not be sexy players, but they will be cheaper and more productive than most players fought over in the major league draft. By creating internal options managers will have more money available to sign free agent production available that year. Bryce Harper may be a 50 HR outfielder in his career and that will be great for a dynasty team, but what opportunities where sacrificed along the way? Is your dynasty best served by drafting 17/18 yr old high school prospects, or settling for the less risky above average prospect that you can move through your system quickly?
The best case scenario for any dynasty manager is successful graduation of prospects, which opens up spots for new draftees in the upcoming draft. Most managers are searching for that superstar in the minors that they can retain on contract for many years, which perpetrates a system based on youth and upside. This prolongs prospect graduation dates and prevents another prospect from being drafted. This strategy is additional stressful on leagues where prospects have a physical contract. The concept that a prospects contract comes due his rookie season or even the year before his rookie season is not an ideal situation.
I believe that the pursuit of the next uber-prospect can hurt a team more than help it. Consider a situation where a team in my league drafted Bryce Harper in 2009. Another team drafted Dan Hudson in the same year. Dan Hudson graduated from the minor leagues in 2010, which allowed another draft pick in his spot. That team could draft a prospect like Dee Gordon or Jose Altuve in 2011 and proceed to graduate that prospect in the 2012 season. I am not saying that any of these prospects are comparable to Harper in value or upside, I am trying to represent the time-value of drafting prospects. In leagues with a contract based system for prospects this becomes even more important.
I stipulate that a minor league system in dynasty baseball leagues should try an provide cheap internal options for the various team positions. Dee Gordon or Jose Altuve may not be sexy players, but they will be cheaper and more productive than most players fought over in the major league draft. By creating internal options managers will have more money available to sign free agent production available that year. Bryce Harper may be a 50 HR outfielder in his career and that will be great for a dynasty team, but what opportunities where sacrificed along the way? Is your dynasty best served by drafting 17/18 yr old high school prospects, or settling for the less risky above average prospect that you can move through your system quickly?
